The Forces Behind China's Climate Change Policy: Interests, Sovereignty, and Prestige

　

Zhihong Zhang

　

Abstract

　

In Chapter 4, Zhihong Zhang also examines forces behind China's climate change policies. According to Zhang, the importance of China is usually understood in two ways. First, with a burgeoning economy and heavy reliance on coal for energy, China is expected to eventually overtake the United States as the world's largest emitter of GHGs. Second, as the world's largest developing country, China is a leader in the developing world, often "steering" international climate change negotiations. Its interests are not always the same as other developing countries, however, and it is not always able to persuade them to follow its lead. Nevertheless, its influence is great. For these reasons, China's views on climate change will have far-reaching implications, and understanding the forces shaping its domestic and foreign policies is critically important.

 

Zhang argues that China's climate change policies have been driven by three complementary forces. First, China seeks to protect its economic interest and promote its economic development. Any climate change agreement that hinders these will likely be resisted by China. Consequently, Zhang believes that China's sense of urgency to tackle climate change is not as strong as some other developing countries, and it is generally interested in taking on associated low-cost, "no regrets" commitments. Second, China seeks to protect and promote its sovereignty. As such, it resists international monitoring and enforcement, and it may fend off criticisms of its performance or turn away from major commitments. Having said this, China is amenable to more "positive" elements of "surrendering" some sovereignty to international regimes, notably through equality, mutual respect, and state capacity to enforce international regimes. Third, China is concerned about its international image. This concern may induce it to be more cooperative in the context of international climate change agreements and their implementation. Zhang argues that advancing one policy goal (e.g., international image) may be achieved at the minimum expense of other policy goals (e.g., economic development). Reinforcing one of the preceding chapter's conclusions, Zhang finds that future Chinese policies on the implementation of the climate change regime are not unchangeable. By understanding the forces underlying China's policies, and the potential for them to evolve still further, he believes that diplomats may be able to produce more productive international cooperation on climate change.